billion in 2050. The world population is likely to reach nearly 10 billion in the middle of the next century. It is not easy to say whether this number is acceptable, or extraordinarily large.
By comparison, this estimation is a little less than the UN one of 1992. It is 70 million less in 2000 compared to 1992's estimate, and 180 million less by 2025. This is the result of estimations which reflect the sharper than expected decline in the global birth rate, and its significant effect.
When we consider the future world population separated by area, although the developed nation's population is increasing slightly, the rate is quite small and most of the increase will occur within the developing nations. The world population will increase by 4.1 billion from 1995 to 2050, of which 41 million is in the developed nations, and the remaining 4.07 billion is in the developing nations. The population distribution ratio between developed and developing nations is 20:80 in 1995, but will be 12:88 by 2050.
A significant difference can be seen in the future rate of increase within developing nations. In Africa and Western Asia, the annual increase will continue to exceed two percent for some time, but other areas, like East Asia, are expected to fall below one percent in the near future. Then the increase rate for all areas is expected to fall below two percent by the middle of next century.
The UN's 'Future Population Estimation' is calculated using the last accurately known population figures (1990 for 1994's estimation) as the start point, and extrapolating them using anticipated birth and death rates. In this case, both birth and death rates are gradually expected to decline. Therefore, the reason that the population's increase rate falls in any area is due to the rate of decline of the birth rate exceeding that of the death rate. Those estimations may be overly optimistic. If the food supply increase does not keep pace with the population increase, there is a fear that the Malthusian population law, which decrees that the death rate will increase, will come into effect. However, of course the future population figures announced by the UN have never taken that into account.
